Air-conditioning industry boom is expected to continue

With the arrival of New Year's Day in 2014, there are indications that the air conditioner dealers are actively stocking their products to welcome the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival in the near future. The agency expects that in the coming period, the overall air-conditioning industry shipment growth rate is expected to continue to maintain double-digit growth, continuing the industry's high boom.

The off-season of the air conditioning market is not thin, and the growth of domestic shipments continues to increase. According to the latest industry data monitored by Industry Online, the total household air-conditioner shipments in November increased by 5% year-on-year; of which, domestic shipments continued the strong growth rate after the new cold year's opening, an increase of 20.44% year-on-year, becoming the year-to-date performance. In the best month, the overall shipment growth rate was boosted; however, the export situation was not satisfactory, which was a decrease of 19% year-on-year.

From the perspective of the domestic retail market, the sales of household air conditioners have continued to show eye-catching performance. In the retail market, third-party monitoring agency Yikang pushed the total data, showing that the retail sales of home air conditioners in October increased by 26.4% year-on-year, and retail sales increased by 29.4% year-on-year. From January to October, the accumulative growth rate of retail sales and retail sales was 24.2% and 28.2%. Although there are still two months to the end of the year, the accumulative growth rate of the retail market from January to October is higher than that before 2008 to 2012. Year-round increase.

Institutions generally believe that the gradual release of decoration demand caused by the early property recovery is the main reason that leads distributors to be optimistic about the terminal retail market for a period of time in the future and increase the stocking intensity. Although the export situation has fluctuate in the short term, taking into account the gradual recovery of foreign countries, especially the European and American economies, the export situation will have improved. The future growth rate of exports is expected to show a warming trend.

From the point of view of the entire industry chain, there is a highly synchronous and close relationship between upstream compressor production and overall enterprise output. Compressor scheduling is usually adjusted based on the needs of air conditioner companies; Both the production and sales rate remained at about 98%, and the production and sales status was basically balanced. Therefore, the upstream compressor company's production scheduling plan reflects, to a certain extent, the shipping rhythm of the air conditioner companies.

It is understood that the current air-conditioning compressor companies are still in the period of high stocking, production is in a saturated state. Some companies will continue to actively produce within the next two or three months because of the high demand for procurement of air conditioner companies.

According to the data, the number of air conditioner compressor manufacturers in December increased by 17.3% year-on-year (excluding Lingda data); among them, the major manufacturers, Meizhi and Highly, achieved growth rates of 41.4% and 27.7% respectively year-on-year. The active production scheduling of companies shows that the manufacturers of air conditioners are optimistic about the market's optimistic expectations.

In fact, since October, major air-conditioning compressor companies have intentionally increased their production schedules, not only in December, but in November, air-conditioning compressor manufacturers' production data has increased by 15.8% over the same period of last year; in addition, upstream compressor companies have The market conditions in the future are generally more optimistic and have increased the annual sales target for next year.

At present, the market concentration of the top three companies in the air-conditioning industry (Gree, Midea, and Haier) is 70%. Considering that all-inclusive policies have been withdrawn, the market share of future energy efficiency leaders is expected to continue to increase.