The reporter found that the LED industry bubble caused by government subsidies has broken down. Some insiders believe that Shenzhen's abolition of planning at this time, let the market decide "who is going" is a wise move; but there are also concerns that this is a blow to corporate enthusiasm. The LED industry has entered the era of low profit, which is said to indicate that the market is about to enter an outbreak period. "LEDs will not follow the footsteps of the photovoltaic industry."
The market decides "who is going"
Abolition planning is very wise
Yan Kaitai, general manager of Shenzhen Likeda Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. believes that the Shenzhen Municipal Government abolished the "plan" is "an wise move."
"The "plan" was still forward-looking at the beginning of the formulation." Kaikai said that Shenzhen introduced the LED industry plan. At that time, it opened a precedent in China. The company drank the "head soup". It can be said that there is no Shenzhen LED without "plan". The industry is leading the country.
However, apart from the confession, as time goes on, the problems exposed by the Plan are increasing. First of all, the Shenzhen Municipal Government intends to subsidize LED enterprises, up to 10 million yuan, attracting a large amount of hot money into the LED industry in a short period of time, repeated investment is serious, the industry produces bubbles, and the market competition environment deteriorates. Second, in the "Planning" Several standards are seriously lagging behind the actual development. "For example, the "plan" originally expected an average annual growth of 25 lumens per watt of brightness, and the price dropped by 15%. However, the actual situation is that the average annual growth rate per watt of brightness is nearly 50%, and the price is reduced by 50 annually. %."
Kaikai said that in this case, the government abolished the "plan" and let the market decide whether "who is and who can't" is wise.
Why not expire
Will it fight enthusiasm?
An industry veteran who did not want to be named said that it is completely unnecessary for Shenzhen to issue a document to abolish the "Planning". "It was originally an industry guidance document. There are still two years after the expiration of this document. Is it better to expire automatically?"
Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission said in an interview with the media that in March 2009, the Shenzhen Municipal Government promulgated the "Planning". At the end of December 2011, the Shenzhen Municipal Government promulgated the "Shenzhen New Generation Information Technology Industry Revitalization Development Plan (2011). -2015) and "Shenzhen New Generation Information Technology Industry Revitalization Development Policy", and later released "Industry Planning" and its supporting policies, have covered the LED industry.
However, the above-mentioned insiders believe that this cannot be a sufficient reason for the abolition of the Plan. "Repealing "Planning" at this time is a blow to corporate enthusiasm." The person also said that "Shenzhen New Generation Information Technology Industry Revitalization Development Plan (2011-2015)" and "Shenzhen New Generation Information Technology Industry Revitalization Development Policy" ", can not support the policy to cover the entire industry chain and the future OLED industry.
The lure is just "blowing bubbles"
LED myth has been shattered
In the early 1990s, Shenzhen began the development of the LED industry. There are thousands of companies engaged in the research, development, production and application of LED lighting technology and products, and cultivated a number of listed companies. However, since 2010, the Shenzhen LED myth has begun to burst, and the enterprises with a production value of over 100 million yuan such as Du Duoli, Bolun Optoelectronics, Vision Optoelectronics, and Haobo Optoelectronics have either shut down their production or the boss has â€œwalked awayâ€.
â€œThe large-scale LED enterprises have closed down frequently, indicating that the industrial crisis has exceeded the scope of normal reshuffle. After the introduction of the â€œPlanningâ€, the incentives of the Shenzhen government subsidies have made some LED companies look forward to the embarrassment, LED projects are rapidly launched, and bubbles appear soon, followed by or stranded. Or Kaitai.â€ Kaikai told reporters that at the end of 2010, there were more than 1,300 companies in Shenzhen engaged in the LED industry (80% of which were exported), and in 2008 this figure was only 700. Since then, affected by the European and American debt crisis, the market growth rate has slowed down and competition has deteriorated. After a round of slumping, it is estimated that by the end of last year, more than half of the 1,300 LEDs in Shenzhen had closed down or had financial difficulties. â€œThere are three types of companies that have died: foreign trade companies, smaller companies, and companies that lack technology.â€
Profit reduced from 35% to 5%
There are still a lot of companies that will die
"After two years of market slaughter, customers have now concentrated on large enterprises, the division of labor in the industry chain is becoming more and more clear, corporate profits are becoming more and more reasonable, and LEDs have entered the era of low profits." Kai Kaitai told reporters that in 2009, the general brightness of the LED industry For 25 lumens per watt, a good company can achieve 40 lumens, but the price is as high as 40 yuan / watt. Today, the average level of the LED industry in Shenzhen is 150 lumens per watt, and the unit price is only 1.8 yuan. "The original 1 ç› 150 watt street lamp cost 10,000 yuan, now the brightness has increased nearly 4 times, only 2,000 yuan, the price has dropped 5 times." Yan Kaitai said that in 2009, installed a street lamp, LED enterprise net profit is about 35 %, now it has dropped to 5%.
Yan Kaitai believes that even if the competition has been so fierce, the bubble of the Shenzhen LED industry has not completely shattered, and deep integration will continue for some time. "Now there are about 12,000 LED companies in the country, and the remaining 1,000 are a reasonable industrial layout. As for Shenzhen, it is expected to retain 300-500."
However, in response to the current "LED industry will certainly follow the footsteps of photovoltaics" remarks, Kaikai retorted: "Now the stock prices of LED listed companies are rising, entering the era of low profit, just to show that the market is going to enter the outbreak period, LED is impossible to step into the photovoltaic industry The footsteps.â€ Yan Kaitai stressed that the replacement of ordinary lights with LED lights has become an unstoppable trend.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
For more details, please read the exclusive special plan of Gaogong LED: Shenzhen LED "discontinued" reflection
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