Claiming that there is no real estate bubble in China
On the evening of April 23, the forum titled “China's Real Estate Development Prospects†was held in Boao, Hainan Province. As expected, in less than 5 minutes, the forum quickly evolved into a real estate business. The core of the big criticism of economists is that "China does not have a real estate bubble."
â—Sun Hongbin: Scholars are nonsense
For the voice of scholars to squeeze the "bubble", Sun Hongbin, chairman of Sunac Group, slammed without mercy: "Scholars are basically nonsense! Some say that China's real estate will have a bubble burst, on the grounds that China raises interest rates, and the US raises interest rates. The price of oil has risen, the tsunami has changed, and the exchange rate has changed. But these will only affect the supply of funds. He does not know what the demand is. For example, in Tianjin, the demand is 13 million square meters. This year is effective. The supply is 8 million square meters, and there is room for price increases."
â—Liu Xiaoguang: There is a side of policy
Liu Xiaoguang, the chairman of the company, believes that the consumer demand for housing in China is solid. If this demand is destroyed, it will be endless. At the same time, the current financial policy has one side.
â— Ren Zhiqiang: Strong follow-up demand
Ren Zhiqiang, head of China Resources, said that Japan’s contribution to GDP was still above 12% when the financial crisis was the worst. China is far from reaching this level, and subsequent demand is irreplaceable by any country.
â— Hu Zuliu: Bosses are too optimistic
Goldman Sachs (Asia) Managing Director Hu Zuliu said that as an economist, he is willing to share the optimistic estimates of real estate developers, but many of them have gone through industrialization and have gone through urbanization. Real estate prices have experienced several ups and downs, the United States. Real estate in the 30 years before World War II has declined. Japan has also declined since 1993 and has only recently stopped falling.
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Real estate giants shouted that house prices rose, and Zhou Xiaochuan reminded him of the risk
This year, real estate and cars are considered by the market to be a major engine for the sustainable development of China's economy in the next 20 years. On the evening of April 23, Boao’s 2005 annual meeting organized an open seminar on “China's real estate development prospectsâ€. At the meeting, the domestic giants in the local industry, the spirit of a hundred times, unanimously believe that China's housing prices still have room to rise.
The real estate seminar was chaired by the director of the Boao Forum for Asia, Long Yongtu, as the “direct directorâ€. Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China Ltd., arranged the guest as the “deputy directorâ€. The four "actors" are well-known real estate agents in China: Ren Zhiqiang, Chairman of Huayuan Group, Feng Lun, Chairman of Vantone Group, Liu Xiaoguang, Chairman of Shouchuang Real Estate Co., Ltd. and Sun Hongbin, Chairman of Sunac Group.
Sun Hongbin first said that China's real estate industry should continue to follow the path of the market economy, and I believe that the market will play an increasingly important role in the future. Some scholars' judgments on housing demand are not scientific. We have opened more than 900 interlocking stores in 21 cities across the country for long-term market analysis. For example, the effective demand in Tianjin is 13 million square meters, and the current effective supply is only 8 million square meters.
Ren Zhiqiang said that the topic discussed in the Boao Forum is a new role in Asia. I think China's new role is the housing industry. Our well-off goal is to achieve a per capita housing area of ​​35 square meters by 2020. In this way, we need to cover 20 billion square meters per year in the next 10 years, and the actual situation is now only 3-4 billion square meters per year. It can be seen that the demand is very large. Some contradictions and problems in the real estate industry are caused by short supply.
Liu Xiaoguang said that residents' demand for housing is a real demand and cannot be avoided. The national policy is also to make the housing industry develop healthily.
Feng Lun finally spoke, but he saw a positive side from the problems and difficulties of the current housing industry. He said that China's housing industry is in a stage of healthy, rational and sustained growth. The domestic views on the housing industry can be divided into four categories. One is from the public, scholars, public opinion about the high price of housing, the existence of a "bubble"; the second is the cautious attitude of the central bank as a money supplier; the third is the comprehensive The attitude after the party's opinions; the last is the enthusiasm of the real estate business and industry institutions for the "bubble does not agree" and triumphantly. He believes that it is normal to have different voices and opinions about an industry. It is precisely the performance of social progress and industrial maturity.
Is there a bubble in Chinese real estate? The guests at the meeting denied it and expressed their disagreement with the "bubble theory."
Will house prices rise? Another amazing agreement: Yes. The reason is that demand determines prices, and the current domestic demand for housing is real.
How to evaluate the "real estate speculators" in Wenzhou? Pan Shiyi said that it is a matter of course to have money to buy things. As long as the legal procedures are met, no matter who buys the house, it is welcome. Adding such a title to Wenzhou people is discrimination and should not be.
According to the famous economist Hu Zuliu, according to international experience, housing prices in the process of urbanization are likely to fluctuate greatly, and both Japan and the United States have experienced a decline in house prices. He reminded guests to pay attention to risks. Feng Lun said that from a macro perspective, the big cycle of China's housing industry will rise with the continuous development of China's economy, so overall this cycle is optimistic. However, the small cycles across the country are very different and must be studied with great care. In this sense, risk is everywhere. In addition, he stressed that the biggest risk of China's housing industry lies in the uncertainty of policy.
On the same day at the Boao Forum, a reporter asked the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan: "Now the domestic real estate developers are worried about the central bank raising the loan interest rate. What do you think?" Zhou Xiaochuan replied that for entrepreneurs, some are worth worrying about. The matter is good. If entrepreneurs can develop without any concern and have no preparation for future changes, then it may not be a good thing. Enterprises should still be wary of market risks.
(Source: People's Network)
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