Since the introduction of white LED technology, LED technology has directly triggered and promoted a new technological revolution in white lighting technology. In recent years, with the decline of manufacturing costs and the breakthrough of technical bottlenecks such as luminous efficiency and light decay, the advantages of LED in the lighting market are becoming more and more obvious, and it is not far from replacing traditional light sources!
LED market growth slowed in 2008
According to CCID Consulting's tracking research on China's LED market, the total LED market in China reached 18.54 billion yuan in 2008, an increase of 8.3%. Affected by the global financial crisis, especially in the fourth quarter of 2008, the price of LED products fell, and the number of orders decreased drastically, resulting in a significant slowdown in growth. But in the long run, the LED market potential is still very large.
The characteristics of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are different.
The upstream of the LED industry includes raw materials and substrates, material extension and other links. The middle reaches include chip fabrication, chip cutting, testing, etc. The downstream includes packaging and application. Due to the complexity of the process and the technical content, the characteristics of the upstream and downstream industry chains, core elements, and investment strategies are quite different.
The upstream industry has extremely high barriers to entry, technology wins, and large investment scales; the mid-stream industry technology is difficult and the investment intensity is large; the downstream industries use diversified products and the investment is more filial.
The upstream and upstream products and business models are single, but the entry barriers are extremely high and the uncertainty is large. Technology and capital are the core elements; the midstream products have certain technical content, but mainly
Relying on the refinement of capital strength and management; downstream applications are diversified, relying more on the comprehensive management and management capabilities of enterprises, quality, cost, brand and channel are more important.
China's LED industry opportunities and challenges coexist
The biggest challenge in the development of China's LED industry is the imbalance of industrial structure caused by the lack of China's LED core technology and patents, but it also gives birth to huge opportunities. The vast domestic market space, positive and forward-looking support policies, and structural industrial opportunities brought about by technological advancement are all great opportunities for China's LED industry to become bigger and stronger.
Opportunities and challenges are as follows:
The huge potential of the domestic market technology is in the process of rapid development, and there are opportunities to come later. The rapid advancement of government support policy technology will bring about price decline, there are structural industries, the low-end overcapacity core technology of the industrial chain, and the patents are controlled by five major manufacturers. Small cost, high industrial structure imbalance
LED lighting market trend analysis and forecast
From a policy perspective, the state supports the development of the LED lighting industry through the establishment of national semiconductor lighting engineering research and development and industry alliances, the introduction of relevant financial support methods, policies and regulations. In 2007, the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Interim Measures for the Administration of Financial Subsidy Funds for Efficient Lighting Products Promotion. The State adopted indirect subsidies to promote high-efficiency lighting products. In 2008, the electronic information industry adjustment and revitalization plan clearly expressed support for the development of China's LED industry. Local governments have also introduced corresponding LED support policies for local specific situations. Fujian Province issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Development of LED and Solar Photovoltaic Industry in Fujian Province (2007-2010)", and the relevant departments of Shenzhen City drafted "Shenzhen LED Industry Development Plan (2009-2015)" and "Shenzhen City" Promote the implementation plan of high-efficiency and energy-saving LED lighting product demonstration project, and "Shenzhen LED industry public technology service platform construction plan". Because LED lighting has the advantages of energy saving, environmental protection and long life, the national and local governments will continue to introduce corresponding policies and regulations to support the development of the industry. Therefore, the LED lighting market will usher in new policy opportunities.
From a technical point of view, LED luminous efficiency continues to break through the limitations of traditional light sources, providing a technical guarantee for LED to enter the lighting industry. According to the latest report, the luminous efficiency of power LED has reached ~120lm/W, and it is expected to reach ~200lm/W in the next 3-5 years. It can be seen that among the various light source types, the power LED has the fastest improvement in luminous efficiency, and the performance performance of the power LED product is excellent. The solid-state lighting development roadmap formulated by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in 2008 is also very good. This is the case. The US Department of Energy proposed and revised the development plan for the luminous efficiency of white LEDs in 2002, 2006, and 2008 respectively. According to the development roadmap formulated by the DOE in 2002, in 2012, the luminous efficiency of 1 square millimeter LED will reach 150lm/W, and the luminous flux will be 1000lm (the driving current is 2A). At this time, the planning has not separated the warm and white light, so this development plan was adjusted in 2006. However, the development speed of white LEDs has obviously exceeded the expectations of DOE. The revised plan introduced in 2008 has improved in the performance of cool white light and warm white light compared to the 2006 plan. With the continuous breakthrough of LED technology and the continuous decline in cost, the LED market potential will be released quickly.
From the perspective of market demand, the substitution effect of LED on the traditional lighting market will greatly stimulate the demand of the LED lighting market. According to a special survey conducted by the National Green Lighting Project Promotion Project Office of China, China's lighting power consumption is more than 300 billion kWh per year. If it is replaced by LED, it means not only 1/3 of the lighting power consumption, but also the total investment scale is over 2000. The annual power generation of the Three Gorges Project of 100 million yuan also means that the replacement effect of LEDs on traditional light sources will bring huge market demand to the LED industry.
In short, China's LED lighting industry faces unprecedented policy opportunities, unexpected technological upgrading space, huge market potential, and broad development prospects. However, whether China can seize the opportunities of LED industry development and become bigger and stronger will ultimately depend on itself. Independent innovation is the only way out for China's LED industry to break through. Only through continuous innovation can China's LED industry develop a "Chinese-style" road and gain more voice and dominance in the increasingly internationalized competition. Only through continuous innovation can we make the Chinese LED industry bigger and stronger under the broad market opportunity!
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